Cloud on the Top of the Hype Curve

I know there's a lot of talk out there about the Cloud and how hyped it is.  It's true.  If you look at Gartner's latest Hype cycle on Emerging technologies, you can see where they place it: literally at the top of the cycle. 

But that's OK - A lot of hype means a lot of awareness. As a vendor this adds wind in our sails and as a customer it makes it easy to find the content that will help make informed decisions.  In fact, last I checked, the term 'Cloud Computing' was yielding over 34 million hits on Google.  Sounds like lots of information for folks who want to learn more.

Another popular topic about Cloud is how long will it take to become a significant movement.  Well, if you believe the leading, trusted analysts in the space like Frank Gens from IDC (I know I do), he already puts the Cloud market -- and let's be specific -- this is the market for External Cloud services (not 'private cloud' spending) at $15.6 billion as of 2009.  That's a big Total Addressable Market.  Far bigger than many segments of IT as we know it today.   And the growth rate is expected to be 27% annually between now and 2014, with some areas such as Cloud Storage racing ahead at a 37% compound annual growth rate. 

Let's look at just Cloud Storage.  According to those same IDC numbers, it's already 9% of the market, and at the current growth rate, that would make it about $1.8bil this year.  That's almost as large as the entire SAN storage networking market, and growing far faster.  Projecting forward, by 2014 Cloud Storage spending will exceed $7 bil.  And by that time external Cloud spending will account for 10% of the IT budget. 

So some are saying Cloud is over-hyped.  Some, that it's under-hyped.  I'd say it's about right for where it is in its maturity.  The perception for some is that Cloud is just for deep file archiving, Test/Dev and limited web-based development.  In reality, early adoptors are already running 60-70% of their business apps in the cloud.  We're seeing the Government laying the groundwork for serious investments in Cloud-based services through programs such as FedRAMP.  And enterprises are swarming shows like VMworld to understand the art-of-the possible, and continue to build upon their internal 'cloud' efforts to be able to extend them towards carrier and service provider clouds.

So long as Cloud vendors continue to deliver capex and opex savings, improved efficiencies, decent quality and security, and fast time-to-solution, then the growth will continue, with or without the hype.

Cloud Network Optimization validated

With the explosive growth of the Cloud Services market, exceeding $68 billion this year, it was obvious to expect lots of innovation in and around this space.  I had been mostly blogging about efforts in the Cloud Infrastructure and Storage space, and was seeing a microcosm of this opportunity with new classes of optimized gear to speed and secure the links from the customer to the cloud.

We recently have witnessed the emergence of Cloud gateways that appear as local NAS but act as intelligent controllers that cache, optimize, encrypt and convert data from the LAN out to the Storage cloud. Along with TwinStrata, Cirtas, StorSimple, and Nasuni, we can now add Panzura to this vendor list.

But I still expected to see a pure-play Cloud Network product in this area.  A device that performed the caching, dedupe, and encryption of a WAN opt. appliance but specifically aimed at datacenter-to-cloud traffic, where the protocols and acceleration are tweaked for storage data and larger pipes. It would be a network device, not a storage device, thus complementing new products such as EMC VPLEX to speed storage virtualization between data centers and enabling use cases such as VMotion over distance.  I had assumed an established network player would be first to meet this need, but a new player, Infineta, took the brass ring.

Infineta has been very distinct in their positioning, focusing on datacenter to datacenter and not branch office traffic which is the established realm of Riverbed and traditional WAN optimization.  And they released a cool new video on youtube. 

It's ultimately up to the analysts as to how the markets get defined, but with this latest product entry, I'm considering Cloud Storage Networking to be a validated market.  For IT organizations, now's the time to start thinking how you can use these new products to safely and cost-effectively transition archival and nearstore data out to the Cloud.