Cloud on the Top of the Hype Curve

I know there's a lot of talk out there about the Cloud and how hyped it is.  It's true.  If you look at Gartner's latest Hype cycle on Emerging technologies, you can see where they place it: literally at the top of the cycle. 

But that's OK - A lot of hype means a lot of awareness. As a vendor this adds wind in our sails and as a customer it makes it easy to find the content that will help make informed decisions.  In fact, last I checked, the term 'Cloud Computing' was yielding over 34 million hits on Google.  Sounds like lots of information for folks who want to learn more.

Another popular topic about Cloud is how long will it take to become a significant movement.  Well, if you believe the leading, trusted analysts in the space like Frank Gens from IDC (I know I do), he already puts the Cloud market -- and let's be specific -- this is the market for External Cloud services (not 'private cloud' spending) at $15.6 billion as of 2009.  That's a big Total Addressable Market.  Far bigger than many segments of IT as we know it today.   And the growth rate is expected to be 27% annually between now and 2014, with some areas such as Cloud Storage racing ahead at a 37% compound annual growth rate. 

Let's look at just Cloud Storage.  According to those same IDC numbers, it's already 9% of the market, and at the current growth rate, that would make it about $1.8bil this year.  That's almost as large as the entire SAN storage networking market, and growing far faster.  Projecting forward, by 2014 Cloud Storage spending will exceed $7 bil.  And by that time external Cloud spending will account for 10% of the IT budget. 

So some are saying Cloud is over-hyped.  Some, that it's under-hyped.  I'd say it's about right for where it is in its maturity.  The perception for some is that Cloud is just for deep file archiving, Test/Dev and limited web-based development.  In reality, early adoptors are already running 60-70% of their business apps in the cloud.  We're seeing the Government laying the groundwork for serious investments in Cloud-based services through programs such as FedRAMP.  And enterprises are swarming shows like VMworld to understand the art-of-the possible, and continue to build upon their internal 'cloud' efforts to be able to extend them towards carrier and service provider clouds.

So long as Cloud vendors continue to deliver capex and opex savings, improved efficiencies, decent quality and security, and fast time-to-solution, then the growth will continue, with or without the hype.

Hybrid Cloud: The Preferred Approach

I've been a big believer for awhile now that 'Hybrid cloud' was where the industry needs to be going.  It's the big idea that truly allows companies and their IT organizations to seamlessly knit together their internal resources with those of their technology vendors.  And I'm a little biased these days working for a networking company, where it has been painfully obvious for some time that the Network is the key to unlocking a lot of latent demand in external cloud computing... with concerns over data Security, Availability and Performance as the biggest barriers to adopting externally-based Cloud services.

But aren't these insurmountable barriers, only leaving companies able to do 'Private Clouds'?  Well what is a Private cloud?  Some would say it doesn't exist - it's just a new label for what a lot of companies have been trying to accomplish within their data centers for some time now, with key capabilities being Server Virtualization, Automation, Self-service provisioning, and Chargeback for usage-based cost allocation.  Gartner called this Real Time Infrastructure. Others termed it Data Center Automation.  Others Utility Computing. 

The reality is that Hybrid cloud computing is already the preferred approach for organizations as seen in this chart from The Info Pro.  Almost 60% of companies expect to be using Both external cloud services as well as developing internal cloud capabilities.


Hybrid computing is getting top vendor support from the likes of Intel, Microsoft and others.  So we can expect to see the ability to connect across data centers -- safely, efficiently and in a manageable way -- becoming an embedded capability within the component resources that we purchase in the future.

The move to Cloud computing is happening today and the only question is at what rate. A recent Brocade study showed that 60 percent of enterprises expect to have started the planning and migration to a cloud computing model within the next two years, with key business drivers being to reduce cost (30 percent), improve business efficiency (21 percent) and enhance business agility (16 percent).  Other interesting Cloud findings included:

• More than a quarter of large organizations are planning to migrate a cloud model within the next two years; 11 percent within one year
• A quarter of organizations stated that the ability to consolidate the number of data centers was also a critical driver
• The availability of bandwidth was also a deciding factor amongst 14 percent of respondents

Conclusion: Embrace the concept of the Hybrid Cloud, and team with technology vendors that are delivering a roadmap allowing you to execute on that vision as soon as possible.

Cloud is about more than cost savings

I just read an insightful blog post about Cloud and the recent Sidekick outage that got me thinking about a couple things:

1. Cloud is not about just cost savings. I remember when ASP sales guys would get asked by a customer about ROI. And as the ambitious marketer enabling them, I’d quickly assemble a tool kit of datasheets with financial illustrations, business savings solution write-ups, brand-name analyst TCO whitepapers and detailed spreadsheets with 3-year cost savings analysis. The industry has now moved on to slick web and flash-based ROI tools that do everything but the direct withdrawal from the prospect’s bank account.

But what we learned was that starting with ROI was the kiss of death. If the customer only cared about cost savings then they’d never buy. It would be too easy for the tech guy to raise the specter of technical bogeymen that would always trump the potential savings. There needs to be a perceived risk-adjusted net benefit of going out-of-house.

2. Cloud service levels will typically be better than you can deliver yourself.  Gartner traditionally put typical IT availability at 98% to 99.5%. 3-9’s of availability or better was reserved for ‘high availability’ applications. These were typically the most business-critical that got the clustering software, gold-tier storage, etc. If they say the Sidekicks were out for 4 ½ hours or so, and if this is the only outage they experienced all year, then this is still a respectable 99.95% uptime. Not bad for a service that appears to be based on IM-ing about concerts and adolescent hookups. I'm seeing many service providers building out with top-quality hardware, software and expertise that can only be afforded due to their large scale.

Going to the cloud has to be for more that just cost savings: It’s for avoiding the investment for infrastructure you don’t want to buy. It’s for getting services you wouldn't otherwise want to manage. And it’s for realizing SLAs, uptime, security, etc. that are typically tough to deliver yourself.